In vitro diagnostics will grow more robustly than the med tech industry as a whole over the next 5 years, spurred by advances in technology and an increasing interdependence from drug development, EvaluateMedTech concluded in a new report.
The analyst firm outlined a rosy forecast for the diagnostics sector in its "World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018: The Future of MedTech report," which it released on Sept. 23 at the start of AdvaMed 2013 in Washington, D.C.
"Within the industry, the leading segment of in vitro diagnostics continues to grow more strongly than the med tech market as a whole, thanks to advances in molecular diagnostics and drugs becoming increasingly linked to diagnostics tests," report author Ian Strickland said in a statement.
Overall, the EvaluateMedTech report asserted in vitro diagnostics will retain its top position in 2018 as the largest med tech segment, followed by cardiology and then diagnostic imaging. The analysts said the medical device and diagnostics sectors will grow at 4.5% between 2012 and 2018, reaching $455 billion in 2018. At that point, in vitro diagnostics alone will generate $58.8 billion in global sales as the largest segment, the report states.
So which diagnostics company is at the top of EvaluateMedTech's future forecast? That would be Roche ($RHHBY), a company that has aggressively pursued development of molecular diagnostics in general, and companion diagnostics in particular. EvaluateMedTech predicts Roche's global in vitro diagnostics market share will climb to 19.3% in 2018, up from its sizeable 18.8% share in 2012. Correspondingly, Roche's global sales will reach $11.3 billion in 2018, up from $8.2 billion in 2012, EvaluateMedTech said.
The analyst firm sees Abbott Laboratories ($ABT) as becoming the number two diagnostics company by 2018, with a 10.7% market share. That's an increase of two slots in EvaluateMedTech's top ten ranking from 2012, when Abbott captured a 9.8% in vitro diagnostics market share. The company will be generating nearly $6.3 billion in sales by 2018, the report predicts, up from almost $4.3 billion in sales in 2012.
Abbott, of course, spun off its proprietary pharmaceuticals this year in order to focus more, in part, on diagnostics. The sector continues to grow steadily for the company.
Danaher ($DHR), Siemens ($SI), Thermo Fisher Scientific ($TMO), Becton Dickinson ($BD), Alere ($ALR), Sysmex, Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and bioMérieux rank from three to 10 on the predicted future diagnostics listing, respectively.
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