On Wall Street, the math on any possible biotech M&A deal often plays out along a best-case scenario for drug developers riding a wave of enthusiasm. Now Onyx ($ONXX) is riding that wave since it breezed through a panel review of its multiple myeloma drug carfilzomib. And analysts are providing some heady estimates for a potential buyout price--under the right circumstances.
Deutsche Bank's Navdeep Singh tells Bloomberg that the panel vote made Onyx "a lot more attractive. The market's indicating that. This drug is really attractive. It's a good tack-on to a sales force that is already selling to the same doctors."
Onyx and Bayer have practically been led up to the altar in analysts' notes, what with their partnership on Nexavar and the hefty royalty stream that Onyx stands to earn from the next-gen drug regorafenib. Bayer, meanwhile, has been stirring the pot with pronouncements about "imminent" deals and its keen interest in growing the cancer drug franchise. But it takes more than one company to get a bidding war underway, and Bloomberg's bullish take taps Celgene ($CELG) and Takeda as potential buyers.
Under the circumstances it's no wonder that Stifel Nicolaus & Co. puts a successful bid at $6 billion, cheap considering the $2 billion in annual revenue some analysts are counting on from carfilzomib.
There is a considerable catch, or two, though. Few analysts expected Onyx to gain such a quick and easy unanimous win at the panel, and the chance of a CRL is still a distinct possibility. That could take the bloom off the Onyx rose, at least for awhile. An approval, though, could drive the rosy projections even higher.
- here's the speculative piece from Bloomberg
Special Report: Carfilzomib – Top 10 Late-Stage Cancer Drugs – 2012