New VEGF-Targeted Agents Entering the Market Will Fail to Make a Significant Impact, According to Findings from Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Genentech/Roche/Chugai’s Avastin will be minimally challenged over the next decade as the overall sales leader and market leading therapy in colorectal cancer in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan. Despite the emergence of biosimilar versions of Avastin and competition from three new vascular endothelial growth factor- (VEGF) targeted agents that will enter the market, Avastin will garner nearly 28 percent of the market share for colorectal cancer in 2020, a slight decrease from its share of more than 32 percent in 2010.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Colorectal Cancer, which will be published by the end of the month, finds that new VEGF-targeted agents entering the market—Regeneron/Sanofi’s aflibercept (Zaltrap, VEGF Trap), ImClone Systems/Eli Lilly’s ramucirumab and Bayer HealthCare’s regorafenib—will fail to make a significant impact, earning a combined market share of less than 6 percent in 2020. The launch of a first-in-class Akt inhibitor, perifosine (AEterna Zentaris/Keryx Biopharmaceuticals/Yakult Honsha’s KRX-0401), is also expected to make a minimal impact in the market, with sales largely relegated to the third-line setting. The findings also reveal that the overall colorectal cancer drug market will decrease slightly from $7.1 billion in 2010 to $6.9 billion in 2020, owing primarily to the generic erosion of key agents.
Bristol-Myers Squibb/ImClone Systems/Merck Serono’s Erbitux, the sales leading therapy for colorectal cancer in the United Kingdom, has dominated the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor drug class, mainly because it was the first EGFR-targeted agent to launch for colorectal cancer. However, Erbitux is expected to experience declining sales through 2020, owing partly to biosimilar competition as well as—more importantly—Amgen/Takeda’s Vectibix gaining traction after its European label expansion in the first- and second-line setting and its anticipated label expansion in the United States. In 2020, Erbitux will achieve sales of $660 million and sales of Vectibix will reach $524 million, which is nearly twice the amount Vectibix garnered in 2010.
The findings also reveal that many interviewed experts believe that the greatest opportunities for drug development in colorectal cancer lie in creating treatments specific to a patient’s tumor type, particularly in the metastatic disease setting.
“Experts we interviewed believe that clinical trials should be designed for specific patient populations that are most likely to benefit from the drug in development,” said Decision Resources Analyst Gemma Nock, Ph.D. “The identification of new genetic mutations specific to colorectal cancer and biomarkers would greatly advance drug development.”
The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Colorectal Cancer forecasts changes in disease incidence and stage distribution, due to improved colorectal screening implementation. There will be a 20 percent increase in diagnosed cases of colorectal cancer in 2025, driven mainly by the aging population. Additionally, by 2025, Decision Resources forecasts an 8 percent increase in the percentage of stage I colorectal cancer cases and a 6 percent decrease in the percentage of stage IV colorectal cancer cases in the world’s major markets.
According to the findings, the number of drug-treatable unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer cases per year will increase by 1 percent. The primary limiting factor behind the growth of this population will be due to a forecasted decrease in systemic recurrence risk, which is in part attributable to the shift in stage distribution.
“We estimate a 10 percent decrease in the number of colorectal cases that recur from earlier stages of disease by 2025,” said Decision Resources Epidemiologist Anouchka Seesaghur. “The decrease in the number of colon cancer cases that recur from earlier stages of disease is twice that of rectal cancer.”
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Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering breast cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, prostate cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 15-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources Group company.
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