TheStreet calculates Medivation's odds on Dimebon

TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein offers a compelling look at the fate that awaits Medivation (MDVN) and anyone bold enough to invest in its stock right now. The developer is looking at a first-half announcement on its Phase III results for Dimebon, a closely tracked new therapy for Alzheimer's.

With standard Alzheimer's therapies woefully inadequate, the five million Americans and 30 million people worldwide who suffer from this terrible disease would be likely candidates for any promising new therapy. In short, a successful Phase III would position Dimebon for an FDA approval and a blockbuster launch. The effect on Medivation shares: Feuerstein expects the shares would rocket from around $33.12-yesterday's close-to the $65 to $75 range.

Then there's the down side, or perhaps we should call it the cliff. A failure would send this stock into the tank. Feuerstein estimates a gut-wrenching drop to $10 to $15 a share, a drop of more than half.  

Mid-stage data for Dimebon "rocked," says the analyst. But there are plenty of doubters who suspect that the Phase II numbers were too good to be true. But TheStreet's resident skeptic is giving Medivation the benefit of some optimism this morning, offering 60-40 odds in favor of a positive outcome. About the only thing guaranteed here, though, is that some people--and this biotech company--will either win big or lose big. There's no breaking even.

- check out the full story at TheStreet

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