Tapping a trio of insiders at Sanofi-Aventis ($SNY), Bloomberg is reporting this morning that the big pharma company may either boost its bid for Genzyme ($GENZ) without offering a contingent value right side offering on Campath, or go with a CVR while sticking to its $69 per share offer. But it won't do both. Some analysts, meanwhile, say that as long as a White Knight doesn't ride to Genzyme's rescue with a sweeter offer, Sanofi is likely to sit pat for now and simply extend its offer later this week.
While there has been endless speculation about the behind-the-scenes jockeying for position among Genzyme's investors since Sanofi went public with its $18.5 billion offer for the rare disease biotech company, the two parties can't make it to the negotiating table. Genzyme insists that $69 a share is too low a number to warrant formal talks while Sanofi has proved reluctant to budge.
In a reflection of just how far apart the two companies remain, Sanofi has estimated peak sales of Campath following a prospective approval for multiple sclerosis at $700 million a year while Genzyme counters with a mega-blockbuster $3 billion in potential annual revenue. Analysts have indicated that both groups are playing with those numbers to help make their case. And no one expects to see any deal before the New Year.
Reuters, meanwhile, is reporting that virtually no one expects any investors to hand over their shares for $69 each ahead of the looming deadline. And an extension now would give Sanofi more time to mull over a CVR deal on Campath. "Such a scenario is not absurd," said one insider, in an example of the elaborate non-denials that now pass for insight on this prolonged story.