The Launch of Five Targeted Biologic Therapies Between 2011 and 2021 Will Propel Gastric Cancer Treatment Toward More-Personalized Therapy
Decision Resources
Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, from 2011 to 2021, the launch of five targeted biologic therapies for gastric cancer will transform a predominantly cytotoxic market in the direction of more personalized treatment. Decision Resources anticipates the launch of two novel next-generation HER2-targeting therapies, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s T-DM1 and Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Perjeta; two c-Met inhibitors, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s MetMAb and Amgen’s rilotumumab; and an anti-angiogenesis vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 inhibitor, Eli Lilly/ImClone Systems’ ramucirumab. In 2021, these agents (combined) will hold 53 percent market share in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor report forecasts that the gastric cancer market will experience slow annual growth from 2011 through 2016. However, the market will rapidly expand thereafter, in line with the launch of premium-priced therapies, achieving annual growth of more than 13 percent from 2016 through 2021. Major-market sales will more than double over the next decade, increasing to $2.3 billion in 2021.
“The gastric cancer pipeline has witnessed several late-stage development failures in the last 12 months, but a recent flurry of new Phase III studies assessing targeted therapies has reignited interest for this difficult to treat disease,” said Decision Resources Analyst Rachel Webster, D. Phil. “The total number of newly diagnosed incident cases were five-times greater in Japan than in the United States and twice the incidence of Europe in 2011, making the Japanese market commercially attractive and potentially lucrative for developers. We forecast that Japan will account for 44 percent of the total gastric cancer market in 2021.”
The , which contains detailed methodology that includes the modeling of recurrent cases of prostate cancer, forecasts that—over the next twenty years—approximately 12,000 non-cardia gastric cancer cases will be avoided as a result of the reduced risk associated with across the major markets. However, the effect of this reduction on the number of gastric cancer cases is outweighed mainly by the effects of an aging population, resulting in a 19 percent increase in diagnosed cases by 2031 in the major markets.
Although Japanese are half as likely as Europeans and Americans to be diagnosed with unresectable late-stage disease, around half of the number of unresectable drug-treatable populations in the major markets consists of Japanese patients. This is due to the much higher incidence of gastric cancer in Japan compared to the Western markets.
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