After 2015, the Market Will Decrease to $11.3 Billion in 2020, Owing to a Decline in the Size of the Treatment-Eligible Population, According to Findings from Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the hepatitis C virus drug market will experience dramatic near-term growth, increasing from $1.7 billion in 2010 to $16 billion in 2015 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. This robust growth will be driven primarily by the launch of novel premium-priced agents that will increase the size of the drug-treated population, mainly as a result of the re-treatment of prior non-responder patients. After 2015, the market will decrease to $11.3 billion in 2020, owing to a decline in the size of the treatment-eligible population as disease prevalence declines and effective new regimens become available.
The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Hepatitis C Virus reveal that, following the 2011 market entry of the first two protease inhibitors to treat the disease—Vertex/Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Incivek/Incivo/Telavic (telaprevir) and Roche/Merck’s Victrelis (boceprevir)—both of these therapies are quickly being adopted, in combination with peg-interferon (IFN)-alpha and ribavirin, to treat genotype 1-infected hepatitis C virus. Telaprevir, which is available in the United States and Europe, has received marketing approval in Japan where it will launch by the end of 2011. However, boceprevir—which is also available in the United States and Europe—will not launch in Japan.
Owing to the large commercial potential that is well-recognized by pharmaceutical developers, the pipeline for hepatitis C virus remains dynamic and competitive. The recent launches of telaprevir and boceprevir as well as agents in late-stage development such as Johnson & Johnson/Medivir’s simeprevir and Boehringer Ingelheim’s BI-201335 (both protease inhibitors), Roche/Pharmasset’s mericitabine and Pharmasset’s PSI-7977 (both polymerase inhibitors) and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s NS5A inhibitor daclatasvir will drive market growth through 2020.
The findings also reveal that interviewed physicians report that a lack of IFN-free regimens is a significant unmet need in treating the disease. Complete elimination of peg-IFNs and ribavirin agents is highly desirable owing to their side effects, which prevent a significant number of individuals infected with hepatitis C virus from receiving antiviral therapy.
“Physicians we interviewed expect that IFN-free regimens will be much better tolerated and will enable treatment of patients who are contraindicated to IFN-alpha,” said Decision Resources Analyst Seamus Wilkinson-Levine, Ph.D. “We forecast that the first IFN-free regimens will be available in the United States and Europe by 2016 and in Japan by 2018.”
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Christopher Comfort, 781-993-2597
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