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It's hard to imagine any outcome in tomorrow's election that would have a truly profound impact on the drug development world. If the Democrats take the House, it is likely that Henry Waxman would take up the NIH conflict controversy as the new chair of the House Committee on Government Reform. Democrat Bart Gordon is in line to chair the House Committee on Science, which could make for some interesting hearings on the political manipulation of science and federal scientists under the Bush administration. Perhaps the biggest single potential change would be a push to allow Medicare to negotiate prices directly with big pharma companies, which have undoubtedly gained windfall profits from the new federal drug benefit. Some of that money has been going to pay for some pricey biotech acquisitions.
On the other hand, if Republicans pull off an upset and retain control of both chambers, we'll stay on familiar ground. Either way, President Bush will continue to influence science and healthcare in general. No one is forecasting that the Democrats will have the votes to overcome a presidential veto.
Regardless of who's running the committees, the critical need for new resources to push through a more ambitious supervision of drug applications--along with a more aggressive federal support of biomedical research--is likely to be sidetracked by continuing federal deficits. The most likely outcome will be two years of gridlock, with Republicans and Democrats pushing and shoving for position under a lame duck president. Almost immediately, the jockeying for the 2008 election will begin in this new era of the unending campaign. - John Carroll






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