The Prostate Cancer Drug Market Will More than Double, Increasing from $4.1 Billion in 2011 to $9.1 Billion in 2021
Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the prostate cancer drug market will more than double, increasing from $4.1 billion in 2011 to $9.1 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. Factors that will drive near-term market growth include the market expansion of Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Biotech/Janssen-Cilag’s Zytiga and the uptake of Medivation/Astellas Pharma’s premium-priced agent, Xtandi.
The Pharmacor advisory service finds that, following its U.S. and European launch in 2011, Zytiga has quickly become the treatment of choice for docetaxel (Sanofi’s Taxotere, generics)-pretreated metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). By 2015, less than two years after its launch, Zytiga is expected to garner major-market peak-year sales of $1.8 billion. Xtandi, an androgen receptor signaling inhibitor, is expected to compete fiercely with Zytiga for share of the lucrative mCRPC market. Physician and patient preference as well as cost of these novel hormonal agents will be critical in shaping prescribing decisions.
“We expect Xtandi to emerge as the patient share leader for chemotherapy-naive mCRPC and, beginning in 2016, it will become the top-selling agent in the prostate cancer market through 2021,” said Decision Resources Analyst Rachel Webster, D. Phil. “We forecast Xtandi will garner sales of $2.2 billion by 2021.”
The findings also reveal that the launch of four novel therapies since 2010 and the anticipated launch of Algeta/Bayer HealthCare’s radium-223 (Alpharadin) in 2013 for symptomatic mCRPC will make this setting an increasingly crowded and competitive landscape.
The , which contains detailed methodology that includes the modeling of recurrent cases of prostate cancer, finds that the number of men with prostate cancer who develop metastatic disease per year—most frequently following metastatic recurrence of non-metastatic disease—will decline, decreasing by 25 percent over the next 20 years. This trend will primarily be the result of recent declines in the number of men being diagnosed with prostate cancer and the prolonged length of time it takes for the disease to metastasize.
The improved overall survival associated with new drug launches will result in the number of men living with metastatic prostate cancer to exceed half a million in 2016, from a current level of 436,000. However, the number of men living with metastatic disease will decline in the longer term as the decreasing number of men that develop metastatic prostate cancer outweighs both the effect of population aging and improved survival.
Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering bladder cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, prostate cancer, renal cell carcinoma, sarcoma and thyroid cancer. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 20-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
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