Sales of Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Blockbuster Avastin Will Plummet to $350 Million in 2019, According to Findings from Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, through 2019, the combined sales of seven new therapies for the treatment of breast cancer will total nearly $5 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. Among the emerging therapies for the indication, surveyed experts are particularly enthusiastic about agents in the Poly ADP-Ribose Polymerase (PARP) inhibitor drug class.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Breast Cancer reveal that Sanofi-Aventis's PARP inhibitor iniparib has the potential to achieve blockbuster peak-year sales in excess of $1 billion. In addition to iniparib, other key PARP inhibitors in development include AstraZeneca's olaparib and Abbott Laboratories' veliparib. Sales of agents targeting HER2-positive breast cancer will increase by almost $2 billion through 2019. This growth will be fueled by the increased uptake of Roche/Chugai's Herceptin, GlaxoSmithKline's Tykerb/Tyverb and the approval of three new HER2-targeted therapies -- Roche/Genentech/Chugai's trastuzumab-DM1, Roche/Chugai's Omnitarg and Pfizer's neratinib.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Avastin has garnered substantial patient share, particularly in the metastatic triple-negative and metastatic HR-refractory treatment settings, where effective therapies are few. However, in July 2010, Avastin's future in this indication was cast in doubt after the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Commission recommended that the FDA rescind the agent's conditional approval for first-line metastatic HER2-negative breast cancer. Additionally, Avastin's European label for breast cancer is also under review by the European Medicines Agency.
"The fact that the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines panel for breast cancer recently affirmed its existing recommendation for Avastin is a positive sign for Roche. However, even in the event that Avastin manages to hang on to a first-line metastatic breast cancer label it's sales -- which surpassed $1 billion for breast cancer alone in 2009 in the world's major markets -- will plummet over the next several years," said Decision Resources Analyst Niamh Murphy, Ph.D. "By 2019, sales of Avastin in breast cancer will drop to $350 million as a result of oncologists' diminishing confidence in the agent, increased prescribing and reimbursement restrictions and competition from emerging therapies -- most notably, iniparib and Eli Lilly's VEGF inhibitor, ramucirumab."
About Pharmacor 2010
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Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.
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Decision Resources, Inc. |
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SOURCE Decision Resources