Dendreon has been alternately hammered and smothered with love by market analysts as its cancer vaccine Provenge wound its way through Phase III. But the developer's sunny view of its Phase III data has triggered quite a bit of zigging and zagging as the analysts sought to keep up.
"After more careful consideration of Dendreon's conference call, we are upgrading Dendreon to Hold from Sell due to our belief that management's bullish account of the data, despite the absence of any data presentation, will likely be justified by the data to come at the AUA conference on April 28. We find it increasingly difficult to believe that management would be that positive in a public forum, and therefore risk certain prosecution, by underdelivering at AUA due to their analyses being less than prospectively defined," wrote biotech analyst Jonathan Aschoff at Brean Murray Carret & Co., who had been bearish.
And there's plenty of fodder here for the analysts to ponder. One new element: The 'Dendreon effect.'
"With the major news out of Dendreon this week, we believe that the valuations of companies in the space will continue to rise, especially if we see convincing data at the presentation of Provenge's data at the AUA meeting in Chicago, on April 28," notes Dr. Simos Simeoniodis, senior biotech analyst at Rodman & Renshaw. "We believe that at least some investors will see the cancer vaccine space as incrementally de-risked and expect the valuations of companies in the space to reflect that."
- read the report from Mike Huckman at Pharma's Market