Merck ($MRK) may lead the industry in developing a new BACE inhibitor for Alzheimer's, but AstraZeneca ($AZN) feels that it has a shot at blockbuster glory in the field as well. And now the pharma giant wants to rope a partner in to share the potential rewards, as well as the high level of risk involved--if not just take over the whole thing.
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| AstraZeneca late-stage R&D chief Briggs Morrison |
AstraZeneca's late-stage R&D chief, Briggs Morrison, is telling reporters that the company wants to find a partner with "more experience" studying Alzheimer's, according to a report from Reuters. AstraZeneca, once a leader in CNS but now downsizing and eliminating its neurosciences research work, also says it might be willing to just outlicense AZD3293 altogether.
Yesterday, AstraZeneca assigned its BACE inhibitor program a peak annual sales potential of $5 billion. Most senior analysts don't like to assign any peak sales figure to an Alzheimer's drug, as the field is littered with expensive clinical trial failures. But AstraZeneca is perfectly willing to tout its blockbuster potential now that Pfizer--which has made its own unsuccessful forays into Alzheimer's research--is making an unwelcome buyout attempt.
BACE inhibition has emerged as one of the hottest sectors in Alzheimer's research, much of which revolves around the notion that eliminating toxic loads of amyloid in the brain will slow or stop the disease. The theory here is that a beta secretase approach can throw a monkey wrench into the body's assembly line for amyloid, though there have been some troubling questions about long-term safety and efficacy. Over the past two years the whole field has shifted to early-stage cases; attempting to prevent the disease from developing in high-risk patients rather than try and change the course of the disease after much of the damage has occurred. But there's still no scientific consensus on the disease's cause or what's needed to treat it.
AstraZeneca may find a willing buyer at Eli Lilly ($LLY), which was forced to drop its own BACE program last summer on signs of drug toxicity. And Roche ($RHHBY) had an early-stage BACE program it eliminated at the end of last year (with no word on the reason why, though), highlighting just how risky this field is.
The odds of success for any partner or new owner aren't good. Even AstraZeneca assigns the drug only a 9% chance of making it through the clinic. Lilly, which has experienced multiple setbacks in CNS, often enjoys taking those kinds of odds.
- here's the story from Reuters